Grand National Winner Predictor
About the Grand National Prediction Tool
Our Grand National winner prediction algorithm uses primarily factual information such as the number of times a horse has fallen, number of wins over three miles and previous experience of the course or tough jumping courses. There are also ratings from our Grand National experts that are blended in.
Together these create overall ratings for each horse for current form, jumping ability, stamina, course experience, ground preference and also a minor adjustment for stable form.
Now there is one thing left for you to do to ensure we get our prediction as accurate as possible. Select the likely going.
About the Grand National Prediction Tool
The 2024 Grand National will take place at 4pm on Saturday 13th April. Grand National Guide provides you with everything you need to know about the Grand National horse race and all the information you need to pick your grand national horses and place your bet.
Read about each of the horses and the chances which our expert horse racing tipsters give them before taking a look at our top four tips for the 2024 Grand National.
This year with the betting shops closed, you can place your Grand National bets quickly and easily online with a reliable and trustworthy online bookmaker. Visit the free bets and offers page and choose a bookmaker to open an account with, your grand national bets could be placed within minutes.
How Its Calculated
After having the 1-2-3 in the 1990 Grand national & then the winner the year after I compiled a list of the main factors that I was using to make the selections. For many years this was done with spreadsheets and then in 2003 became part of this site.
The predictor takes into account a number of factual factors such as the number of times a horse has won over 3 miles, the number of falls, the weight it is carrying, the type of ground it likes and its age .
Specifically we factor in:
Career falls & current season falls
Wins over 4 miles and wins over 3 miles
Runs over the National fences
Wins this season, money won this season
Age (being under 8 or over 11 is often a negative)
Weight carried with higher weights being a disadvantage especially in more testing conditions
What we get is 10 horses that have the characteristics to give them a good chance of getting round and finishing strongly. Obviously there is a lot of luck in the race but the higher rated horses do give a better chance of getting a good run for your money.
The Importance Of the Ground
The prevailing underfoot conditions are very important when assessing a horse’s chances of winning a race. For example, most of the bigger steeplechasers will not enjoy running on ground faster than good as their size means that their joints absorb more weight when the going beneath their feet is harder. Steeplechasers tend to prefer softer conditions underfoot as this puts less stress on their joints and back. Of course, there are always exceptions to these types of rules and here is where the breeding of each horse can be important. Like humans, horses tend to take on some of the characteristics of their parents so if a horse’s sire or dam showed their best for on a certain surface in a lot of cases this trait will be transferred to the progeny as well. Horses tend to be creatures of habit and if you have a quick scan of a horse’s form you will tend to see a pattern developing and see that most horses tend to display a preference for either good or soft ground. Weight carried can also be a factor here as usually the tougher the conditions the harder it will be to carry big weights.
The winner predictor analyses all the factors that go into winning the Grand National and forecasts which of the horses it feels is best suited to all the conditions. Our experts add in multiple types of criteria for the winner predictor to evaluate and then make a prediction as to the horse that ticks the most boxes. We have taken all the hard work out of the form study for you! The winner predictor has been available for a number of years on Grand National Guide and is always one of our most popular tools. Why not give the winner predictor a try for your Grand National selection?