Grand National horses from England - South West

The highlight of De Rasher Counter’s career so far is undoubtedly winning the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury three years ago. Unfortunately, the horse has been plagued by a tendon injury since running over hurdles in October 2020 and has only recently made it back to the course. Emma Lavelle’s ten-year-old gelding returned to action in the Denman Chase in February and ran, understandably, as if needing the run when finishing over thirty lengths behind winner Eldorado Allen in fourth place. Having one run after being off the track for over four hundred days is hardly ideal but connections have always seen this horse as a possible Grand National contender. Winners of the Ladbroke Trophy (or Hennessy Gold Cup, as it was) have traditionally gone on to do well in the Grand National with the likes of Suny Bay, State of Play and What’s up Boys all going on to be placed at Aintree and Many Clouds, who managed to win both races. De Rasher Counter undoubtedly has a touch of quality about him and has now been dropped to the same mark (149) that he won the Ladbrokes Trophy from. If the horse has retained the same level of form that saw him win at Newbury, then he would surely be a contender in the Grand National but it is always difficult to judge if a tendon injury will negatively affect ability. Surprisingly, Emma Lavelle has only had one previous runner in the Grand National (Court By Surprise who was Pulled Up in 2015) but her record is generally good in long-distance chases having won big races with the likes of Shotgun Paddy and, more recently, Éclair Surf.

The two main highlights of Kildisart’s career so far are winning the big three-mile handicap chase on Grand National day in 2019 and finishing second in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020. Since that race at Cheltenham, Kildisart has only made it to the track on three occasions and has been well beaten each time. It is surprising given his last three runs that the Ben Pauling gelding has been well backed for the Grand National. The confidence must stem from the fact that the ten-year-old has been given a handicap mark for Aintree of two pounds lower than that fine run at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020. Stamina for the National would have to be taken on trust with the furthest distance Kildisart has run over up to now being twenty-six furlongs. Kildisart has won on ground ranging from good all the way to soft but has struggled on heavy so would not want a mud-fest. This would be Gloucestershire based trainer Ben Pauling's first runner in the Grand National but the young trainer has already made a great impression with over ten winners in Graded races.

Former Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Santini was recently moved to a new stable by his owners Mr and Mrs Kelvin-Hughes. The ten-year-old has left Nicky Henderson and is now back with Polly Gundry where the gelding originally began his career. Santini's first run for Gundry was in a handicap chase at Cheltenham in December where the gelding was quite well fancied but ultimately weakened late on to finish a well-beaten fourth behind Commodore. Just over a month later, Santini stepped out of handicap company to take in the Cotswold Chase, again at Cheltenham. This time he ran really well, finishing second Chantry House. Santini ran again in the Gold Cup this season finishing in a distant eighth place, over thirty lengths behind A Plus Tard. The handicapper has given Santini a chance in the Grand National, dropping him 6lb from his last start in a handicap. The extreme distance could be just what the gelding needs at this stage of his career but given that he has not won a race for over two years there must be a doubt about him handling a race as competitive as the Grand National.

Cloth Cap was rather a slow starter and didn’t record his first win until the sixth race of his career when taking a lowly handicap hurdle at Huntingdon. However, given that he is related to an Irish National winner in Niche Market, his true promise was likely to be only seen once he tackled fences and so it proved with two wins in his first three races over the larger obstacles. Those two victories were also fairly low key (a Class 4 at Stratford and a Class 3 at Catterick) but he then lined up in the Scottish National as a novice and ran an excellent race to finish third beaten just four lengths by Takingrisks. The following season much was expected of Cloth Cap, but his favoured sound surface was hardly to be found all year long and he suffered four defeats on ground that was much too soft. Those defeats proved to be a blessing in disguise as connections now had a very well handicapped horse on their hands. The Ladbrokes Trophy was targeted and Cloth Cap did not disappoint registering a ten-length success in one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season. Given that the gelding’s owner was three-time Grand National winner Trevor Hemmings it was no surprise to learn that his new target would be the Grand National. Another victory followed in Cloth Cap’s prep race for Aintree and as that race was after the publication of the National weights it seemed that the Jonjo O’Neill trained gelding was well ahead of the mark he had been allocated for Aintree. The betting public latched on to this seemingly well handicapped, in-form runner and Cloth Cap went off the 11/2 favourite for the Grand National. Big-race jockey Tom Scudamore had the gelding up with the early pace, but Cloth Cap was headed for the lead after the eleventh fence and his challenge gradually weakened until he was pulled up before the third-last fence. Scudamore reported that the gelding had made a respiratory noise during the race and the horse was given surgery to correct his wind before the start of this season. The 2021/22 season has continued in a disappointing vein for Cloth Cap being well beaten on all his starts so far. Jonjo O'Neill treated Cloth Cap with a wind operation after his disappointment in the National last year and the trainer feels his charge now has an excellent chance in this year's Grand National.

Deise Aba must be having one of the unluckiest seasons on record having finished second three times by the distances of a neck, a nose, and a head! Those three defeats were all useful performances, but the gelding has now gone up ten pounds in the handicap without getting his head in front on the line. Deise Aba must race at Aintree from a mark of 145 which is the highest rating he has had in his career. One worrying aspect of Deise Aba’s record is that interspersed between some very good runs are a number of inexplicably bad ones. The nine-year-old gelding has pulled up four times in his last eight races so he certainly cannot be called dependable. Another issue for anyone thinking of backing him for the Grand National is that he reserves his best form for Sandown. His form at Sandown reads: 1122 and that course is right-handed in nature as opposed to the left-handed course at Aintree. Deise Aba has won running left-handed, but his absolute best efforts tend to be at right-handed Sandown. The gelding is trained by Philip Hobbs who has had twenty-seven runners and three placed horses (Balthazar King, What's Up Boys and Samlee) since 1998.  Deise Aba will run in the famous green and yellow colours of the late Trevor Hemmings who had won this race on three occasions: Hedgehunter (2005), Ballabriggs (2011) and Many Clouds (2015). Deise Aba does have strong form at twenty-nine furlongs (2nd in the London National at Sandown), and he looks one of the more likely candidates in the Grand National field to be suited by a stamina test like the Grand National, but his inconsistency makes him look like a risky bet.

Assistant trainer Joe Tizzard commented, at the release of the Grand National weights, that Aintree had been this horse’s target since he finished runner-up in the Ladbrokes Handicap Chase at Newbury. Tizzard confirmed that Fiddlerontheroof had been purposedly kept off the racecourse to preserve his handicap mark for the Grand National. The handicapper has raised the eight-year-old gelding by five pounds to 155 for his exploits at Newbury and since the weights were posted for Aintree the Tizzard trained gelding has underlined his wellbeing with a second-place finish in a 48k handicap at Ascot. Fiddlerontheroof’s ability to stay the marathon distance of the Grand National has to be taken on trust and his sire, Stowaway, has only had one previous runner in the National (66/1 chance Outlander who finished in a distant ninth place in 2019). Whilst Stowaway is responsible for an impressive set of offspring such as Monkfish, Kilcooley and Put The Kettle on, there are very few instances of him siring horses who have won at marathon distances. The Tizzards believe their horse can be competitive from his current mark in a Grand National and, whilst he has the stamina to prove, he looks like the sort of horse who could be well supported to win at Aintree.

This season, and particularly his last two runs, have seen a marked increase in form from Éclair Surf, starting with his demolition of a quality field in the 3m 5f Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick. The horse in second that day, Gericault Roque, went on to finish second at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima Handicap Chase. The handicapper raised the gelding ten pounds for that Warwick win, but it did not stop him running a superb race in the 4m 1f Eider Chase at Newcastle where he finished a gallant one and a half lengths second to Win My Wings. The winner that day has gone to frank the form by winning the Scottish National very easily. The handicapper reacted again Éclair Surf’s Eider performance by adding another four pounds to the gelding’s handicap rating putting him up to 147 but as his mark for Aintree had already been published, he can effectively run at Aintree four-pound ‘well-in’ from a mark of 143. The only concern for Éclair Surf would appear to be the ground. Lavelle originally said Éclair Surf would only run at Aintree if the ground was soft but appears to have a change of heart after the run at Newcastle where he ran so well on good to soft ground. With his proven stamina at extreme distances, Éclair Surf is a fascinating contender for the Grand National.

Good Boy Bobby comes from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard who are dual winners of the Grand National. They first tasted success back in 1998 when Earth Summit was an eleven length winner beating Suny Bay and then four years later it was more success after a battling performance from Bindaree landed a second Grand National for the yard. This nine-year-old Good Boy Bobby started off his career by winning three of his four starts in bumpers before going on to land a fourth race on his hurdling debut. Like in bumpers, he went on to win three of his first four starts over hurdles which meant his career started off with an impressive six wins from eight races. For the start of the 2019-20 season, he was switched to fences and despite being beaten a head, there were plenty of positives to take out of the race, future form being one of those, he had Midnight Shadow sixteen lengths behind in third who won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2021 and a further four lengths back in fourth was Global Citizen, a runner who went on to win the 2022 Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. He followed up on that promise next time out and opened his chasing account at the second time of asking, his first real test over fences came next in a Class 2 Novices' Chase where he found Mister Fisher too good, however, that runner went on to win the Grade 2 Lightning Novices' Chase next time out and also another two more Grade 2 chases since including the Peterborough Chase so again, far from disgraced. He found the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase a step too far before having an average 2020-21 season which saw only one win from eight starts during which he was reverted back over hurdles in an attempt to get some confidence back into him. This season he seems to be back in the right mood, he has been upped in trip this season which really does seem to have worked in his favour as the stamina seems to be there. He won on seasonal debut and then was only beaten by a head in the Rehearsal Chase by Aye Right, a runner who went on to run in the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup! He then won the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day and he had some proper stamina runners in behind that day with the likes of Lord Du Mesnil, Top Ville Ben and Lake View Lad. When last seen he was given an almost impossible task of running off top weight off 11-12 in the Coral Trophy and the fact that he still finished seventh was a credit to him. He has risen from 138 to his mark of 150 for the Grand National since the start of this season but that shows how much he has taken to the longer trips this season which should bode well for this race.

Two For Gold comes to the Grand National in excellent form having won over £125,000 this season alone. Kim Bailey’s gelding started his season with a hard-fought success at Doncaster and then took the new 80k chase at Lingfield where he saw off the likes of Dashel Drasher and Bristol De Mai. Bailey then decided to step up into Grade One company and pitched the horse into the Ascot Chase where, despite starting 25/1, he only found Fakir D’oudairies too good. That run at Ascot came after the publication of the Grand National weights and, as a result, Two For Gold gets to run here five pounds ‘well-in.’ The handicapper allocated him a mark of 154 for the National but he is now rated 159 after his second place at Ascot. Two For Gold’s current well-being cannot be questioned but all his form is at distances up to three miles which raises a question mark about his ability to stay the 4 miles and 2 furlong distance of the Grand National. The nine-year-old gelding has only attempted further than three miles once when he ran in the 3m 2f Ladbrokes Chase at Newbury where he was pulled up before two out. The other negative against Two For Gold’s case for winning the National is that he performed poorly when having his only previous race over the National fences. In the 2m 5f Topham last year he was badly outpaced before unseating his rider after the Canal Turn. That is the only time he has fallen or unseated his jockey in his career and is usually an excellent jumper. The question mark with regards to stamina can be offset slightly by the fact that his sire is Gold Well who also sired National Hunt Chase winner Galvin and recent Eider Chase winner Win My Wings. Trainer Bailey won the Grand National way back in 1990 with Mr Frisk and, more recently, had the runner-up in 2016, The Last Samuri. Two For Gold obviously comes with risks as far as his stamina and jumping around Aintree are concerned but he will undoubtedly appeal to many punters as a horse ahead of the handicapper and in excellent current form.

This nine-year-old gelding from Sean Curran's stable has a bit of form over the national fences having finished fourth in the Becher Chase back in 2021, a race that was won by Snow Leopardess. He was towards the rear that day and his jumping was pretty solid bar one or two jumps and despite looking like he was struggling to go with them at the halfway point, he did plug on to pick off those weakening although never near the winner. He had a big test of his stamina when last seen in the Eider Chase, a race run over four miles, one and a half furlongs, the race was similar to the Becher and his style of running, he was held up towards the rear and made some late headway to finish tenth but he was some way off the leading runners, the race was won by Win My Wings. That was just under a mile further than he had ever been, he has won over three miles and two furlongs at Cheltenham off a handicap mark of 144, which is the very same mark as what he has been given for this race, it did rise to 149 but the handicapper eased it after a couple of races. From a ground perspective, it would seem he handles a variety, he won on heavy ground at Ascot, and he is a dual winner on soft ground and is a four-time winner on good ground too so it would appear the ground is not much of a concern for him. As already mentioned, he is certainly a hold-up horse, whether that tactic will be altered for the grand national is something only the owner & trainer know, that sort of tactic would put a few people off in this type of race as it is very easy to run into trouble and there are not many that come from the rear to win, can it be done? Yes, of course, One For Arthur in 2017 is one example but you need luck in running and you need a brisk pace to be set, a lot of factors he would need in his favour.

Lostintransaltion has spent most of his career up to now taking on the very best and has won two races at Grade One level (the Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree and the Betfair Chase) and has finished placed in a Gold Cup. The Colin Tizzard gelding has obviously suffered from issues with his breathing in recent seasons and has had three wind operations since December 2019. The latest wind operation was in August 2021 and Lostintranslation made it back to the winner's enclosure on his first run back after surgery when taking the Grade Two 1965 Chase at Ascot. Unfortunately, his three runs since then have been mediocre culminating last month in his first-ever run in a handicap when finishing eighth in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The handicapper decided to drop the gelding to a mark of 150 after that race but, unfortunately for the horse's connections, he was rated at 157 when the weights were released for the National so he is effectively seven pounds worse off in the National than he would be in any other handicap. Assistant trainer Joe Tizzard has been quoted as saying that Lostintranslation has become ' a bit hit and miss at the moment' and he also went on to say that he probably needs good ground to show his best as he has gotten older. With the question marks about his breathing, his in and out form and having to race seven pounds higher than he is rated in the National, Lostintranslation seems to have a lot going against him at Aintree.

Vastly experienced chaser who has been bought to run in the National and only made it in to the races after three late non-runners on Friday. Previously trained by Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton he is now under the care of Grand National winning trainer, David Pipe. Romain De Seanm has had forty-one races under Rules but only four of those runs have been at three miles or further. In three attempts at three miles (all at Kempton) he finished 4th, 8th and 4th.  The ten-year-old gelding has had one try at a marathon distance when lining up in the 4m 2f Midlands National last month. On that occasiosn he was pulled up before the 19th fence and it looks like he will start as one of the rank outsiders in this year's Grand National.