Red Grand National Horses

The highlight of De Rasher Counter’s career so far is undoubtedly winning the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury three years ago. Unfortunately, the horse has been plagued by a tendon injury since running over hurdles in October 2020 and has only recently made it back to the course. Emma Lavelle’s ten-year-old gelding returned to action in the Denman Chase in February and ran, understandably, as if needing the run when finishing over thirty lengths behind winner Eldorado Allen in fourth place. Having one run after being off the track for over four hundred days is hardly ideal but connections have always seen this horse as a possible Grand National contender. Winners of the Ladbroke Trophy (or Hennessy Gold Cup, as it was) have traditionally gone on to do well in the Grand National with the likes of Suny Bay, State of Play and What’s up Boys all going on to be placed at Aintree and Many Clouds, who managed to win both races. De Rasher Counter undoubtedly has a touch of quality about him and has now been dropped to the same mark (149) that he won the Ladbrokes Trophy from. If the horse has retained the same level of form that saw him win at Newbury, then he would surely be a contender in the Grand National but it is always difficult to judge if a tendon injury will negatively affect ability. Surprisingly, Emma Lavelle has only had one previous runner in the Grand National (Court By Surprise who was Pulled Up in 2015) but her record is generally good in long-distance chases having won big races with the likes of Shotgun Paddy and, more recently, Éclair Surf.

The Philip Kirby trained gelding will be having his second attempt at the national fences and will be looking to make amends for last time after a heavy fall at the twelfth in the Becher Chase last year. He is now a four-time winner over fences, he won the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby back in 2019 and when last seen over fences he was third in that same race at the end of 2021 behind Good Boy Bobby and Lord Du Mesnil. Wetherby does seem to be a track he enjoys, three of his four chase wins have now come there and Wetherby is quite different in design to Aintree so that may be a worry regarding his effectiveness in a Grand National. The fact that he has run well on the Mildmay course may go some way to negate those concerns. What might be more of a concern is that the ten-year-old has fallen five times in his career to date. Four of those falls were over hurdles though which he obviously wasn’t treatING with enough respect. He tends to jump with alacrity and exuberance over the larger obstacles and has so far only fallen when facing these fences in the already mentioned Becher Chase. He is given a 148 mark for this, it's the first time that he has dropped below 150 since back in 2019 with his only handicap success to date over fences, albeit he has only run in four, came off a mark of 154 back in 2019 so is six pounds better off in this race. Connections tend to switch between letting the horse attack from the front or holding him up for a late run but there can be no doubt he is more effective when pushing hard from the lead. If such tactics were adopted at Aintree, his bold jumping should be a sight to see.

Delta Work has leapt to the top of the market for the Grand National following his defeat at Cheltenham of stablemate and two-time Grand National winner Tiger Roll. That victory at Cheltenham was Delta Work’s first attempt at a Cross Country race, a discipline where experience of the unique obstacles is usually the key to success. Delta Work took to this new racing environment with aplomb, outbattling the mighty Tiger Roll for a hard-fought victory with over twenty lengths back to the third horse. The nine-year-old gelding was on a seven-race losing streak before that, which is most unusual for Delta Work, who has been a prolific winner at all levels. The Gordon Elliott trained gelding has been a star for his stable and is now a dual Cheltenham Festival winner after also taking the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle in 2018. Also on a star-studded CV are five Grade One victories, including the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. Winners of the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival have an excellent record when moving on to Aintree, with Tiger Roll winning both races and Cause of Causes and Balthazar King winning at Cheltenham and finishing second in the Grand National. When making a selection for the Grand National one of the main considerations is the effectiveness of the horse in question to cope with the possible ground conditions. Delta Work has recorded victories on good ground right through to heavy so it seems that whatever the underfoot conditions at Aintree he is unlikely to be inconvenienced. Delta Work will obviously need to prove he has the stamina for the 4m 2f distance at Aintree but his sire, Network, is already responsible for Saint Are who finished second in the Grand National in 2015 and third in 2017 so it could well be that Delta Work will thrive under this extreme test of stamina.

Run Wild Fred’s standout runs so far in his career have come when he has faced decent ground conditions, most notably when runner-up in last year’s Irish National and recently at Navan in the Troytown Chase where he decimated a really good field for a very easy seven and a half lengths victory. Unfortunately, the handicapper was also suitably impressed with Run Wild Fred’s performance at Navan and has put the gelding up a whopping thirteen pounds for that effort. The question must now be if that sizeable rise will negate his chance in the Aintree Grand National. The Gordon Elliott trained gelding is now on a mark of 158 which, if he runs from that level at Aintree, would mean he runs from very near the top of the weights. Only Bristol De Mai, Chris's Dream and Yala Enki were rated above 158 in last year’s National so it would be a stellar performance for this young horse to win a National from such a high rating. He does, however, have the assistance in the saddle of Davy Russell who has finished first, first and third on his last three rides in the Grand National.

Death Duty is a multiple race winner, including Grade One victories as a novice over hurdles and fences.  The gelding’s career was interrupted by a hind joint injury in 2017 which saw him off the track for over two years. On returning to the track in November 2020 the Gordon Elliott gelding appeared to have lost the form that had seen him win nine of his then fourteen races.  Eight consecutive defeats ensued which resulted in the eleven-year-old becoming very well handicapped. Death Duty finally took advantage of this drop down the weights to win the 3m 4f 45k Grand National trial at Punchestown.  Death Duty is now set to line up at Aintree and, whilst a six-pound rise back up the handicap for his Punchestown win may seem severe for a horse of his age, he must have a decent chance. Death Duty is now rated 144 but at his best, he was rated as high as 159 so, on those figures, he would definitely have a feasible chance of winning the 2022 Grand National.

This season, and particularly his last two runs, have seen a marked increase in form from Éclair Surf, starting with his demolition of a quality field in the 3m 5f Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick. The horse in second that day, Gericault Roque, went on to finish second at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima Handicap Chase. The handicapper raised the gelding ten pounds for that Warwick win, but it did not stop him running a superb race in the 4m 1f Eider Chase at Newcastle where he finished a gallant one and a half lengths second to Win My Wings. The winner that day has gone to frank the form by winning the Scottish National very easily. The handicapper reacted again Éclair Surf’s Eider performance by adding another four pounds to the gelding’s handicap rating putting him up to 147 but as his mark for Aintree had already been published, he can effectively run at Aintree four-pound ‘well-in’ from a mark of 143. The only concern for Éclair Surf would appear to be the ground. Lavelle originally said Éclair Surf would only run at Aintree if the ground was soft but appears to have a change of heart after the run at Newcastle where he ran so well on good to soft ground. With his proven stamina at extreme distances, Éclair Surf is a fascinating contender for the Grand National.

Coko Beach has plenty of experience for a seven-year-old having had twenty-two races since moving from France to Gordon Elliott in December 2018. He recorded one victory over hurdles and ran in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, better was to come when he was tried over fences. Coko Beach won the Thyestes Handicap Chase last season beating Run Wild Fred by four lengths. After that victory, he was tried in a Grade Two Novice Chase at Navan which he also won convincingly. Since those two victories, there hasn’t been much to enthuse about in Coko Beach’s form with a run of seven defeats. The highlight of those races was perhaps finishing fourth behind Death Duty in the twenty-eight-furlong Grand National Trial at Punchestown. All of Coko Beach’s best efforts have come on heavy ground which looks unlikely for Aintree and the fact that he is still only seven must also be seen as a negative as horses of that age have an extremely poor record in the Aintree Grand National. His supporters will point to that better run at Punchestown when running over a longer distance so it could be that Aintree’s emphasis on stamina will bring out an improvement in Coko Beach.

Samcro started his career with eight consecutive victories from a point to point through two bumpers and then four hurdle wins that culminated in him taking the Ballymore Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. At that stage of his career, he looked to have the racing world at his hooves, but four consecutive defeats followed over hurdles (all of which he was favourite for), and the decision was made to switch the gelding to fences. Samcro’s career over fences got off to a good start with a seventeen length victory but then he fell in a Grade One novice chase at Fairyhouse and then was well beaten at odds on by Faugheen in another Grade One at Limerick. These were unexpected reverses and, as a result, he was allowed to go off at 4/1 third favourite for the Golden Miller Novices’ Chase at the 2020 Festival. This time however Samcro dug deep and was victorious by a nose from Melon with a further length back to his old foe, Faugheen. After his second Cheltenham Festival win, the Samcro bandwagon looked to be back in top shape and plans were made for a tilt at the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. A number of niggling injuries meant that the horse was restricted to just two outings prior to his third run at the Festival where he finished third behind Batteloverdoyen and was pulled up in the Savills Chase. The same outcome occurred in the Ryanair where his jumping seemed to unravel. This season saw Samcro get back on the winning trail with a hard-fought victory over Cilaos Emery at Killarney in May but since then he has put in five very lacklustre performances. For a career that started so well, it looks as if there is something either physically or mentally wrong with Samcro as he appears to be a shadow of his former self. Optimists will point to the fact that the horse has been rated as high as 160 over fences and gets to line up here off 152. The downside to that is Samcro has previously run in two handicaps and was beaten seventy-one lengths and sixty-nine lengths, respectively. Samcro's best days look behind him and he can surely only be backed by his most die-hard fans.

Vastly experienced chaser who has been bought to run in the National and only made it in to the races after three late non-runners on Friday. Previously trained by Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton he is now under the care of Grand National winning trainer, David Pipe. Romain De Seanm has had forty-one races under Rules but only four of those runs have been at three miles or further. In three attempts at three miles (all at Kempton) he finished 4th, 8th and 4th.  The ten-year-old gelding has had one try at a marathon distance when lining up in the 4m 2f Midlands National last month. On that occasiosn he was pulled up before the 19th fence and it looks like he will start as one of the rank outsiders in this year's Grand National.