Grand National Winner Trends
By looking through the Grand National history, it’s easy to identify the type of horse required to win the Grand National. Many people try to use trends to narrow down the field.
Grand National Trends Tips - The Short List
Grand National Trends
- Chase runs at least 10
- Age 8 to 11
- Season Runs 3 or more
- Days since last run 20-60
- 3m chase wins at least 1
- Weight up to 11st 6lb
- Season Fall no more than 1
- Career Fall no more than 2
- Biggest Chase win over 30k
Many previous winners
, shared the above characteristics. Each one of these trends should be considered when looking at the list of this years Grand National runners
If we apply the above critieria to the 2017 Grand National we are left with the following shortlist:
- Cause Of Causes
- Just A Par
- Houblon Des Obeaux
- Lord Windermere
Use our Grand National Form Tool
You can use our Grand National form
tool to input the criteria and show you the list of horses which fit the trends. Add your own criteria to further narrow down the field.
In our popular Grand National Blog
there has been lots of discussion as to how we can cut the field down further.
Grand National Trends - Age
Stamina reserves and jumping ability are the two most crucial requirements for a Grand National winner. Younger horses have a poor record in the race which is probably because they tend to have more speed than stamina.
As horses age, like humans, they tend to lose speed and gain stamina. With so many difficult jumps, experience is the key to success
Much older horses also tend to struggle in the Grand National as a horse needs to be in its prime to survive the tests of the World's greatest race.
The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 8 - 11 years old. Grand National trends back this up with all of the last 10 winners coming from this age group.
Focus on horses aged 8-11.
Since 2003 32 horses aged 7 have run in the Grand National. None of those 32 horses finished in the top 5 places
Amberleigh House in 2004 was the last horse aged 12 or older to win the Grand National. Since then 46 horses aged 12 or over have run in the Grand National and only four of those have made the top 5.
Grand National Trends - Class
It may seem an obvious statement but every year thousands of pounds are lost on horses that don't have the class to win a Grand National.
Grand National trends - bad horses simply don't win the race! Grand National trends like this are too strong to be ignored. Concentrate on those rated over 136 on the day of the race.
In 2014 the winner Pineau De Re was rated 143. This trend may not be very helpful these days as almost all, if not all runners may meet this trend. The class of horses running in the Grand National has improved in recent years. In 2015 for example Many Clouds was rated 160 and all of the first five home were rated 140 or higher. It is likely you should now be looking for a higher rated horse.
Grand National Trends - Weight
The weight a horse carries is probably the most important statistical factor when analysing top class staying handicap chases. With the Grand National being the longest and toughest staying handicap chase this is made even more important.
Grand National trends - horses carrying more than 11 stone 6lbs have tended to struggle but with the recent changes to the race perhaps horses with a high weight are beginning to become more favoured? This thought was backed up with Many Clouds winning last years race. So it is no longer a case of ignoring horses on higher weights.
Grand National Trends - Stamina
Stamina is a critical ingredient for winning the Grand National. Every year we see very talented 2.5 milers that the public & press get behind, yet they never seem to last home.
The 2012 joint favourite Seabass had only won over 2m 6f and it looked like his stamina ran out in the final stages of the race.
The BHA have taken steps to reduce the possibility of horses running the Grand National who have lots to find on stamina but it should still pay to concentrate on those horses who have categorically proved their stamina.
Grand National tips - if a horse hasn't previously won over at least three miles then you are taking a big chance that its first long distance win will be the Grand National. Concentrate on those with proven stamina
2016 winner Rule The World did not meet this criteria as the Grand National was the first race over fences he has won! However he had proven his stamina with some excellent placed runs including when finishing second in the 3m 5f Irish National.
Five of the horses in the current top 40 have NOT won over three miles
Grand National Trends - Ability to Perform in Top Races
Each of the last ten winners had proven ability in a top race.
Even the two horses that did not meet this criteria had shown top class placed form. As mentioned earlier Rule The World had been placed in an Irish National and Pineau De Re had finished placed at the Cheltenham Festival.
Grand National trends - Its far safer to concentrate on runners with proven ability. These horses have shown that they are capable of being competitive at the highest level Concentrate on horses with proven ability in a decent class race
Grand National Trends - Jumping Experience
Horses with little jumping experience don't win Grand Nationals. To jump these large, difficult obstacles, a horse needs to have the confidence behind them which they have gained by jumping plenty of fences before.
Schooling on the training grounds doesn't make up for real experience at the race course.
Grand National tips - this normally eliminates a few novices and those with little experience due to being off the course with injuries.
Grand National Trends - Tiredness/Trained for the Race
A tired and over raced horse can't be expected to beat 39 other horses in the toughest race on earth. Horses who aren't at peak fitness will struggle.
The Grand National is usually run around three-four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival
and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.
Some would think that this leaves them at a big disadvantage and if they have been in a tough race at the festival, three weeks or so might not be enough time for some of them to recover.
However, in recent years several horses have run well at Cheltenham and gone on to win the National. So maybe this is another trend which is changing.
Grand National Trends - Trainers and Jockeys
Its best to concentrate on the proven ability of the horse rather than the jockey and trainer.
Jockeys can win with their first run in the Grand National whereas some of the best national hunt jockeys have never won the race. A perfect example of this was last year when jockey David Mullins gave Rule The World the perfect ride to win on his first ride around the Aintree fences.
Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst the late Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.