Grand National Winner Trends
By looking through the Grand National history, its easy to identify the type of horse required to win the Grand National. We have gone through all the stats and below we list the Grand National trends which each of the past ten winners had!We have used these trends to help us come up with a short list of the most likely winners for Grand National 2012
Grand National Trends Tips - The Short List
These horses meet all of the trends listed below and we think they will have given the handicapper the most problems.Merigo was in the peculiar position last year of being a Scottish National winner who did not make the final weights for the Grand National due to too low an official rating. That should hopefully not be a problem in 2011/12 as he received a push up the weights for finishing second at Ayr in 2011 to Beshabar. Stamina will not be a problem for this horse.
Sorry. Merigo is not running in the 2012 Grand National
Click Here to see the list of this years runners
Alfa Beat As a dual winner of the Kerry National it may seem that the handicappper will have the measure of Alfa Beat but that may not be the case as he has only had one race over fences for his current trainer and it could just be that Shark Hanlon can bring about further improvement from the horse. Likely to be campaigned over hurdles until the National itself.
Bet on Alfa Beat now at 33-1 with
Paddy Power and get a £200 Free BetAlways Right is a chaser in the mould of Grand National heroes such as Grittar and Spartan Missile in that he comes from a hunter chase background and is trained by a small trainer. But Always Right has had one season of running in handicaps and proved himself well worthy of his place in that sphere with a hard fought victory in the Grimethorpe Chase at Doncaster and a close third in the Scottish National to Beshabar and Merigo . We at Grand National Guide really like the look of the Scottish National form and Always Right looks a chaser to have in your ante post selections for the 2012 Grand National
Bet on Always Right now at 33-1 with
SkyBet and get a £10 Free BetThe tips we highlight here along with the last ten previous winners, will share the following characteristics -
- 8 to 12 years old
- handicap rating above 135 on the day
- weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
- won over at least three miles
- run in at least ten chases
- won a chase worth at least £17,000
You can use our Grand National form tool to input the criteria and show you the list of horses which fit the trends. Add your own criteria to further narrow down the field.
In our popular Grand National Blog there has been lots of discussion as to how we can cut the field down further for the Grand National 2012.
Aimed at The Grand National
At Grand National Guide we have always advised to look for a Grand National Runner who has been aimed at the race all season. One way is to look for horses who have run over hurdles in the current year.The reason trainers run their Grand National hopes over hurdles is to protect their chase handicap mark. Horses have different handicap ratings for whether they are running over hurdles or chases. Should a horse run well in a chase early in the year then their handicap mark will be increased and thus make their chances of winning the grand national more difficult.
Its no surprise then that
8 OF THE LAST 10 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE SEASON THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL. (Comply Or Die and Bindaree did not)
So using this trend let us identify those meeting the above trends which look to be aimed specifically at the Grand National and whose trainers think they could be well handicapped and want to protect that handicap mark. Ballabriggs was campaigned over hurdles to maintain his handicap mark in 2011 but whereas most horses run over hurdles before the National are just running to gain fitness, Ballabriggs highlighted his wellbeing with two easy wins. He is likely to run over hurdles again in 2011/12 as connections wouldn’t want to run the risk of him getting any more weight if he ran well in a conditions chase.
Bet on Ballabriggs now at 16-1 with
Bet 365 and get a £200 Free BetGrand National Trends - Age
Stamina reserves and jumping ability are the two most crucial requirements for a Grand National winner. Younger horses have a poor record in the race which is probably because they tend to have more speed than stamina.As horses age, like humans, they tend to lose speed and gain stamina. With so many difficult jumps, experience is also helpful which again hinders the younger runners.
We have to go back to 1940 to find a horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National
Older horses also tend to struggle in the Grand National as a horse needs to be in its prime to survive the tests of the Worlds greatest race.
The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with 10 of the last thirteen winners being aged nine or ten.
In the last 87 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National
Focus on horses aged 8-12. The 2011 winner Ballabriggs was aged 10 and none of the first ten home was aged under 9. In 2010 only one horse in the first eight home was eight or younger so it may pay to just concentrate on horses aged 9-12.
Grand National Trends - Class
It may seem an obvious statement but every year thousands of pounds are lost on horses who don't have the class to win a Grand National. Most recent Grand National winners ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only Bobby Jo and Little Polvier winning from "out of the handicap"
Grand National trends - bad horses simply don't win the race! Grand National trends like this are too strong to be ignored! Concentrate on those rated between 136 and 157 on the day of the race. In 2011 the winner Ballabriggs was rated 150.
Grand National Trends - Weight
The weight a horse carries is probably the most important statistical factor when analysing top class staying handicap chases. With the Grand National being the longest and toughest staying handicap chase this is made even more important.Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum!
Grand National trends - horses carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs have tended to struggle. The Grand National is such a long and tough race that every pound which is carried makes a big difference. Concentrate on runners carrying under 11st 6 lbs The winner last year Ballabriggs carried 11stone 0lbs.
Grand National Trends - Stamina
Stamina is a critical ingredient for winning the Grand National. Every year we see very talented 2.5 milers that the public & press get behind, yet they never seem to last home.Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles!
The BHA have taken steps to reduce the possibility of horses running the Grand National who have lots to find on stamina but it should still pay to concentrate on those horses who have categorically proved their stamina. Grand National tips - if a horse hasn't previously won over at least 3 miles then you are taking a big chance that its first long distance win will be the Grand National. Concentrate on those with proven stamina The 2011 winner Ballabriggs had confirmed his stamina by previously winning chases over three miles or further, including a prestigious handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. Merigo will be a popular choice due to his Scottish National runs but with two wins at over thirty-three furlongs he is one of the few runners with confirmed stamina at the Grand National trip
Sorry. Merigo is not running in the 2012 Grand National
Click Here to see the list of this years runners
Grand National Trends - Ability to Perform in Top Races
Each of the last ten winners had proven ability in a top race.Every winner in the last ten years had won a race worth at least £17,000.
Grand National trends - its far safer to concentrate on runners with proven ability. These horses have shown that they are capable of winning and that they can handle the conditions of a competitive race. Concentrate on horses with proven ability in a decent class race Last years winner had proven himself in good class races including winning a 33k handicap at Cheltenham.
Grand National Trends - Jumping Experience
Horses with little jumping experience don't win Grand Nationals. To jump these large, difficult obstacles, a horse needs to have the confidence behind them which they have gained by jumping plenty of fences before.Schooling on the training grounds doesn't make up for real experience at the race course.
Each of the last 10 Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree.
Grand National tips - this normally eliminates a few novices and those with little experience due to being off the course with injuries.
Grand National Trends - Tiredness/Trained for the Race
A tired and over raced horse can't be expected to beat 39 other horses in the toughest race on earth. Horses who aren't at peak fitness will struggle.The Grand National is usually run around three-four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.
This leaves them at a big disadvantage and if they have been in a tough race at the festival, four weeks or so might not be enough time for some of them to recover.
In recent years Silver Birch (second in the Cross Country), Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) and Dont Push It (pulled up in the Pertemps Final) have gone on to win the Grand National after racing at Cheltenham. Many others have tried and failed.
Grand National Trends - Trainers and Jockeys
Its best to concentrate on the proven ability of the horse rather than the jockey and trainer.Jockeys can win with their first run in the Grand National whereas some of the best national hunt jockeys have never won the race. A perfect example of this was in 2009 when jockey Liam Treadwell gave Mon Mome the perfect ride to win on his first ride around the Aintree fences.
Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst the late Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.
- Pay attention to runners from stables with a history of training good staying chasers and Grand National winners but don't place too much emphasis on this.
- Don't be put off if your selection has an inexperienced jockey on board - Liam Treadwell for example!
- Richard Johnson is one of the current top jump jockeys yet he has never won a Grand National!
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