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Grand National Winner Trends
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Grand National Trends By looking through the Grand National history, its easy to identify the type of horse required to win the Grand National. We have gone through all the stats and these are the Grand National trends which each of the past ten winners had!
We'll use these Grand National trends to highlight some 2008 Grand National Tips for you.
The tips we highlight here along with the last ten previous winners, will share the following characteristics -
 8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
Each one of these trends should be considered when looking at the list of this years Grand National runners.
For the 2008 Grand National this leaves the following list of runners.
Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, LAmi, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Cornish Rebel, DArgent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Philson Run, and Dun Doire.
And I dont think we should rule out Joaaci as his win was worth just £90 short of the £17,000 criteria!
Quite a few qualifiers this year! In our popular Grand National Blog there has been lots of discussion as to how we can cut the field down further.
Aimed at The Grand NationalAt Grand National Guide we have always advised to look for a Grand National Runner who has been aimed at the race. Its always difficult to know for sure which runners have been aimed specifically at the race. One way is to look for horses who have run over hurdles in the current year.
The reason trainers run their Grand National hopes over hurdles is to protect their chase handicap mark. Horses have different handicap ratings for whether they are running over hurdles or chases. Should a horse run well in a chase early in the year then their handicap mark will be increased and thus make their chances of winning the grand national more difficult.
Its no surprise then that EACH OF THE LAST 5 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL. So using this trend lets us identify those meeting the above trends which look to be aimed specifically at the grand national and whose trainers think they could be well handicapped and want to protect that handicap mark. Each of the following have had a run over hurdles in 2008 prior to the Grand National.
These are the top trends tips for 2008.
 | Slim Pickings at 33-1 with VC Bet |
Vodka Bleu will not be running
McKelvey will not be running
Dun Doire will not be running
Grand National Trends - AgeStamina reserves and jumping ability are the two most crucial requirements for a Grand National winner. Younger horses have a poor record in the race which is probably because they tend to have more speed than stamina.
As horses age, like humans, they tend to lose speed and gain stamina. With so many difficult jumps, experience is also helpful which again hinders the younger runners.
In the last 67 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National
Older horses also tend to struggle in the Grand National as a horse needs to be in its prime to survive the tests of the Worlds greatest race.
The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with seven of the last ten winners being aged nine or ten.
In the last 84 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National
Concentrate on horses aged 8-12. The 2007 winner Silver Birch was aged 10 and all the finishers were aged between 8 and 12!
Grand National Trends - ClassIt may seem an obvious statement but every year thousands of pounds are lost on horses who don't have the class to win a Grand National.
In the last 20 Grand Nationals every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only Bobby Jo and Little Polvier winning from "out of the handicap"
Grand National tips - bad horses simply don't win the race! Grand National trends like this are too strong to be ignored! Concentrate on those rated between 136 and 157 on the day of the race. In 2007 the winner Silver Birch was rated 138.
At the time the 2007 weights were announced, all the horses set to carry 10st 3 or less were rated 135 or less. Using this trend eliminated the bottom 52 horses in the entries.
Grand National Trends - WeightThe weight a horse carries is probably the most important statistical factor when analysing top class staying handicap chases. With the Grand National being the longest and toughest staying handicap chase this is made even more important.
Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum!
Grand National tips - horses carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs struggle. The Grand National is such a long and tough race that every pound which is carried makes a big difference. Concentrate on runners carrying under 11st 5 lbs Last year this knocked out a further 5 runners. The winner Silver Birch carried 10stone 6lbs. Only one horse carrying 11st 5lbs or more completed the race!
Grand National Trends - StaminaStamina is a critical ingredient for winning the Grand National. Every year we see very talented 2.5 milers that the public & press get behind, yet they never seem to last home.
Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles!
Grand National tips - if a horse hasn’t previously won over at least 3 miles then you are taking a big chance that its first long distance win will be the Grand National. Concentrate on those with proven stamina The 2007 winner Silver Birch had confirmed his stamina by previously winning four chases over three miles or further, including the Welsh National at Chepstow.
Grand National Trends - Ability to Perform in Top RacesEach of the last ten winners had proven ability in a top race.
Every winner in the last ten years had won a race worth at least £17,000.
Grand National tips - its far safer to concentrate on runners with proven ability. These horses have shown that they are capable of winning and that they can handle the conditions of a competitive race. Concentrate on horses with proven ability in a decent class race Last years winner had proven himself in good class races including winning the Welsh National.
Grand National Trends - Jumping ExperienceHorses with little jumping experience don’t win Grand Nationals. To jump these large, difficult obstacles, a horse needs to have the confidence behind them which they have gained by jumping plenty of fences before.
Schooling on the training grounds doesn’t make up for real experience at the race course.
Each of the last ten Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree.
Grand National tips - this normally eliminates a few novices and those with little experience due to being off the course with injuries.
Grand National Trends - Tiredness/Trained for the Race A tired and over raced horse can’t be expected to beat 39 other horses in the toughest race on earth. Horses who aren’t at peak fitness will struggle.
The Grand National is run around four weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.
This leaves them at a big disadvantage and if they have been in a tough race at the festival, four weeks or so might not be enough time for some of them to recover.
In recent years only Silver Birch (second the Cross Country) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National. Many others have tried and failed.
Grand National tips - favour horses who have been trained specifically for the Grand National over those who have recently run at Cheltenham. 2006 winner Numbersixvalverde was trained specifically for the Grand National and didnt run at the Cheltenham festival. We have highlighted above how a run over hurdles in the year preceding the grand national could indicate a horse being specifically trained for the big race.
Grand National Trends - Trainers and Jockeys Its best to concentrate on the proven ability of the horse rather than the jockey and trainer.
Jockeys can win with their first run in the Grand National whereas some of the best national hunt jockeys have never won the race.
Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.
Grand National tips - pay attention to runners from stables with a history of training good staying chasers and Grand National winners but don’t place too much emphasis on this.
Grand National tips - don’t be put off if your selection has an inexperienced jockey on board.
A P McCoy is one of the greatest ever jump jockeys yet he has never won a Grand National. |
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Winner Trends
