Grand National Winner Trends
By looking through the Grand National history, its easy to identify the type of horse required to win the Grand National. We have gone through all the stats and these are the Grand National trends which each of the past ten winners had!We'll use these Grand National trends to help highlight the most likely winners of the Grand National 2010
The tips we highlight here along with the last ten previous winners, will share the following characteristics -
- 8 to 12 years old
- handicap rating above 135 on the day
- weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
- won over at least three miles
- run in at least ten chases
- won a chase worth at least £17,000
Following the second declaration stage on March 16th last year, this still left over 26 horses in the running. You can use our Grand National form tool to input the criteria and show you the list of horses which fit the trends. Add your own criteria to further narrow down the field. The form guide will be up and running when we get a bit nearer to the 2010 race.
In our popular Grand National Blog there has been lots of discussion as to how we can cut the field down further for the Grand National 2010.
Aimed at The Grand National
At Grand National Guide we have always advised to look for a Grand National Runner who has been aimed at the race all season. One way is to look for horses who have run over hurdles in the current year.The reason trainers run their Grand National hopes over hurdles is to protect their chase handicap mark. Horses have different handicap ratings for whether they are running over hurdles or chases. Should a horse run well in a chase early in the year then their handicap mark will be increased and thus make their chances of winning the grand national more difficult.
Its no surprise then that
6 OF THE LAST 7 GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS RAN OVER HURDLES IN THE YEAR THEY WON THE GRAND NATIONAL.
So using this trend lets us identify those meeting the above trends which look to be aimed specifically at the grand national and whose trainers think they could be well handicapped and want to protect that handicap mark.
Grand National Tips 2010 - The Short List
These horses meet the above trends and we think they will have given the handicapper the most problems. We feel that these horses should be aimed specifically at the Grand National.Black Apalachi ran just once before the weights were announced in 2009 and that was in a hurdle race. Likely to take a similar course for 2010.
Bet on Black Apalachi now at 20-1 with
Ladbrokes and get a £25 Free BetComply Or Die took a while to come to hand last year and it would be no surprise to see him start the season slowly again in 09/10 but he is becoming a real Aintree specialist and his supporters look assured of a good run for their money. Don't be surprised if he is given a spin over hurdles this year in preparation for Aintree.
Bet on Comply Or Die now at 25-1 with
Paddy Power and get a £250 Free BetMon Mome was given an outing in a novice hurdle in his prep for his victory in the 2009 Grand National and very likely to be given more of a try in that sphere as he is still a novice over hurdles. Connections could even pick up a couple of wins before tackling Aintree!
Bet on Mon Mome now at 25-1 with
Boylesports and get a £40 Free BetSnowy Morning has won over fences and hurdles since finishing 9th in last years National so it would be no surprise to see him tackle the smaller obstacles more frequently this season especially as his handicap mark over fences looks on the high side.
Bet on Snowy Morning now at 25-1 with
Ladbrokes and get a £25 Free BetGrand National Trends - Age
Stamina reserves and jumping ability are the two most crucial requirements for a Grand National winner. Younger horses have a poor record in the race which is probably because they tend to have more speed than stamina.As horses age, like humans, they tend to lose speed and gain stamina. With so many difficult jumps, experience is also helpful which again hinders the younger runners.
In the last 68 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National
Older horses also tend to struggle in the Grand National as a horse needs to be in its prime to survive the tests of the Worlds greatest race.
The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with 10 of the last thirteen winners being aged nine or ten.
In the last 85 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National
Concentrate on horses aged 8-12. The 2009 winner Mon Mome was aged 9 and four of the first five home were 9 or 10.
Grand National Trends - Class
It may seem an obvious statement but every year thousands of pounds are lost on horses who don't have the class to win a Grand National. In the last 21 Grand Nationals every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only Bobby Jo and Little Polvier winning from "out of the handicap"
Grand National trends - bad horses simply don't win the race! Grand National trends like this are too strong to be ignored! Concentrate on those rated between 136 and 157 on the day of the race. In 2009 the winner Mon Mome was rated 148.
Grand National Trends - Weight
The weight a horse carries is probably the most important statistical factor when analysing top class staying handicap chases. With the Grand National being the longest and toughest staying handicap chase this is made even more important.Since the war only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum!
Grand National trends - horses carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs struggle. The Grand National is such a long and tough race that every pound which is carried makes a big difference. Concentrate on runners carrying under 11st 5 lbs The winner last year Mon Mome carried 11stone 0lbs. Only one horse carrying 11st 5 or more finished in the first 8 home.
Grand National Trends - Stamina
Stamina is a critical ingredient for winning the Grand National. Every year we see very talented 2.5 milers that the public & press get behind, yet they never seem to last home.Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles!
Grand National tips - if a horse hasn't previously won over at least 3 miles then you are taking a big chance that its first long distance win will be the Grand National. Concentrate on those with proven stamina The 2009 winner Mon Mome had confirmed his stamina by previously winning chases over three miles or further, including a prestigious handicap at Cheltenham over 26f and finishing second in a Welsh National.
Grand National Trends - Ability to Perform in Top Races
Each of the last ten winners had proven ability in a top race.Every winner in the last ten years had won a race worth at least £17,000.
Grand National trends - its far safer to concentrate on runners with proven ability. These horses have shown that they are capable of winning and that they can handle the conditions of a competitive race. Concentrate on horses with proven ability in a decent class race Last years winner had proven himself in good class races including winning a 57k handicap at Cheltenham.
Grand National Trends - Jumping Experience
Horses with little jumping experience don't win Grand Nationals. To jump these large, difficult obstacles, a horse needs to have the confidence behind them which they have gained by jumping plenty of fences before.Schooling on the training grounds doesn't make up for real experience at the race course.
Each of the last 10 Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree.
Grand National tips - this normally eliminates a few novices and those with little experience due to being off the course with injuries.
Grand National Trends - Tiredness/Trained for the Race
A tired and over raced horse can't be expected to beat 39 other horses in the toughest race on earth. Horses who aren't at peak fitness will struggle.The Grand National is run around three weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and many horses will have been trained so that they peak in time for Cheltenham, not Aintree.
This leaves them at a big disadvantage and if they have been in a tough race at the festival, four weeks or so might not be enough time for some of them to recover.
In recent years only Silver Birch (second in the Cross Country) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National after racing at Cheltenham. Many others have tried and failed.
Grand National Trends - Trainers and Jockeys
Its best to concentrate on the proven ability of the horse rather than the jockey and trainer.Jockeys can win with their first run in the Grand National whereas some of the best national hunt jockeys have never won the race. A perfect example of this was in 2009 when jockey Liam Treadwell gave Mon Mome the perfect ride to win on his first ride around the Aintree fences.
Some trainers have a better history of training staying chasers and particularly Grand National winners than others. In recent years Nigel Twiston Davies has trained two runners to victory, whilst Ginger McCain won his fourth Grand National with Amberleigh House.
- Pay attention to runners from stables with a history of training good staying chasers and Grand National winners but don't place too much emphasis on this.
- Don't be put off if your selection has an inexperienced jockey on board - Liam Treadwell for example!
- A P McCoy is one of the greatest ever jump jockeys yet he has never won a Grand National!
Share this link with friends on Facebook & Twitter
