Grand National Best Bet

Thanks to horse racing tipster Dylan Jenear for his thoughts on what makes for the best bet on the grand national.

Dylan writes for the popular odds comparison site ValueChecker where you can check out his daily horse racing previews.

Last year Dylan gave us two horses and they finished first and second!! So be sure to follow his Grand National best bets this year.

Grand National Best Win Bet

Advice: 1pt win Niche Market (16-1 when advised)

Bet on Niche Market now at 33-1 with SkyBet and get a £10 Free Bet

Grand National Best Each Way Bet

Advice: 1pt e/w Calgary Bay (33-1 when advised)

Bet on Calgary Bay now at 25-1 with SkyBet and get a £10 Free Bet

How to assess the English Grand National

With 40 runners invariably going to post, four and a half miles to cover and 30 fences to negotiate, assessing the Grand National, which will this year be run on April 9, can appear as daunting a task as attempting to jump Bechers Brook ones self.

Whether you are a sympathiser of statistics or not, in the context of horseracing statistics can be significant – its certainly wise to take notice of emerging trends. It goes without saying that you want to be looking for a horse that jumps proficiently, possesses proven stamina (I certainly wouldnt consider backing a horse without previous winning form over at least three miles) and, of course, jockeyship is paramount. One of the finest examples of how to negotiate the Grand National course can be witnessed by watching a rerun of Ruby Walshs victory aboard Hedgehunter in 2005. An experienced jockey with a cool head is crucial.

Age Trends

No less than 11 of the last 14 winners of the Aintree spectacular were aged nine or 10 at the time of their victory. While one wouldnt be too dismissive of horses just below or above the aforementioned age band, this statistic strongly indicates that you need a fairly experienced horse (at least a second-season chaser), but not one with too many miles on the clock or overly exposed.

Grand National Weights Influence

Just two Grand National winners since 1988 have carried more than 11st to victory – Dont Push It (11st 5lb) last year and Hedgehunter (11st 1lb) in 2005. The National is the sole race in the jumps calendar in which the handicapper is able to use discretion to adjust ratings specifically for the race rather than each entry necessarily being allotted a weight based on its present BHA rating. Consequently, when assessing your fancy for the race, its wise to check the official rating it has been running off during the current season in order to gauge how well, or not, treated the horse may be.

Can Dont Push it Win The Grand National Again?

Statistics suggest its unlikely. No horse since Red Rum (1973-74) has won back-to-back Grand Nationals, and many have tried. Another factor that counts against Don’t Push It is that he is set to carry top weight of 11st 10lb (or joint top-weight if Neptune Collonges also lines up for the race). Red Rum is the only horse to have successfully shouldered top-weight in the National since 1960; he carried 12st to victory in 1974. On the plus side, Don’t Push It did appear to thoroughly enjoy the Aintree experience last year and, as a sizeable animal, he is built to carry plenty of led. However, it is a big ask for him to win under 11st 10lb.

Sorry. Dont Push It is not running in the 2012 Grand National
Click Here to see the list of this years runners

Will Paul Nicholls Train This Years Grand National Winner?

There are very few races which have proved elusive to the all-conquering Ditcheat handler, but so far the Grand National has proved beyond Paul Nicholls reach. Seeing Silver Birch land the 2007 renewal must have been painful for the yard, as that gelding was in the care of Nicholls prior to switching to the Gordon Elliott yard late in 2006. But can the champion trainer end this hoodoo in 2011? He has a very good chance of doing so. His 10 entries for this years running of the great race are headed by NICHE MARKET, who was well below par when pulled up in the 2010 National, but appeared to be coming right back to form when a highly creditable fifth of 18 to Diamond Harry in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. The 10-year-old will be able to participate off a 7lb lower mark at Aintree. As an Irish Grand National winner we know that Niche Market is not short of stamina, he generally jumps with aplomb, has been allotted a nice racing weight of 10st 13lb and he is effective on a sound surface, so the prospect of good ground at Aintree on April 9 is also a positive. It will also be a big plus if Ruby Walsh is in the saddle on National day.

Grand National 2011 Best Bets

Niche Markets claims are pretty compelling and he earns the vote, with 16-1 an appealing price, but an each-way bet on Calgary Bay is also advised. Henrietta Knight’s charge, who is set to carry 10st 10lb, possesses a touch of class and promises to be suited by a stiff test of stamina. The gelding makes a good shape over his fences, travels strongly in his races and has performed with plenty of credit in hot handicaps over inadequate trips at Cheltenham in his last two starts. Admittedly, hes just an eight-year-old (Bindaree in 2002 is the only horse in recent years to win the National as an eight-year-old), but Calgary Bay possesses plenty of experience in big-field handicaps over fences and his likely partner in the saddle at Aintree, Hadden Frost, is an accomplished, composed jockey. At 33-1, Calgary Bay is certainly a solid option for a place at least.