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Grand National Best Bet
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Grand National Tips from Horse Racing Handicapper JwoodyThanks to horse racing tipster and handicapper Jwoody for his Grand National thoughts.
How to assess the English Grand NationalThe English Grand National is arguably the most demanding race on the global calendar and every year the horse that wins it fits a very specific profile; understandably too. It takes a certain type of horse to win the Grand National, I find the best way to handicap the huge field of entrants down to a handful of runners is by applying a set of rules that help prove the horse has what it takes to win.
Jumping Ability CrucialI want to see that a horse has superb jumping ability, especially in big crowds; this shows they are able to cope with jumping fences amidst the severe crowding that is likely in the Grand National. If I see a history of falling in a horses form, I confidently chuck them out, the fences on the Mildmay course at Aintree claim the highest percentage of fallers out of all chase tracks in the UK.
In our opinion the best jumpers in the 2008 Grand National are
Backbeat will not be running
Hedgehunter will not be running
Look for Proven StaminaThe horse must have proven stamina over marathon distances, candidates should have won over 27 furlongs or at very least finished respectably in either the English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Midlands Grand National. This indicates they have the stamina needed to get home over 36 furlongs.
In our opinion those runners with the best stamina are
McKelvey will not be running
philson run will not be running
ossmoses will not be running
Age and Weight Carried are Powerful IndicatorsIn the last 14 renewals, no winning horse has been younger than 8 nor older than 12 years of age and the biggest weight carried to victory was 11st1lbs. I usually take the age factor further, giving clear preference for horses aged between 10 and 12 due to them having more jumping experience under their belts. I believe however, it's worth considering horses carrying slightly more than 11st1lbs, due to the way in which Phil Smith, the man in charge of assigning the Grand National weights, has artificially compressed the handicap increasing the median weight carried, thus making it easier for the classier horses at the top of the handicap to concede weight to their lesser opponents. I would'nt be surprised to see a horse carry over 11st1lbs to victory in this years renewal.
Class is Often UnderratedI usually chuck out any horse that has'nt achieved a BHB official handicap rating of at least 135 at some point in that season. Horses that have'nt managed this are either on the decline or simply don't have the class to be competitive at this level.
Look for Experienced ChasersEqually as important as jumping ability is experience. I'm instantly put off any horse who raced as a novice chaser in the previous 12 months, they wo'nt have had enough experience of chasing to win the toughest chase of all.
French Breds Could StruggleI'm inclined to oppose French bred horses, they are'nt bred to cope with marathon distances, there are very few races run beyond 2 miles 6 furlongs in France, which is why no French bred horse has won the Grand National in nearly 100 years.
Hurdle Prep Runs a Good SignA statistic that has become more prominent recently is the need for a horse to have run over hurdles that season; this indicates the trainer may be protecting their horses chase handicap mark for the Grand National.
The following runners meet the main trends and have had a hurdle prep race this year.
 | Slim Pickings at 33-1 with VC Bet |
Vodka Bleu will not be running
McKelvey will not be running
Dun Doire will not be running
Have Confidence with Irish RunnersFinally, it has paid dividends in recent years to concentrate on the Irish horses in the big hurdle and chase races run in the UK. With Irish horses dominating proceedings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Queen Mother Champion Chase, Champion Hurdle, Aintree Hurdle and Melling Chase, it's obvious the Irish clearly have the best horses, and this is unlikely to change soon, in my opinion, due to the way horse racing is funded in Ireland.
In our opinion the leading Irish Runner is
| Slim Pickings at 33-1 with VC Bet |
Now take a look at the full list of 2008 Grand National Runners |
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What To Look For
